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Swansea vs Derby Prediction

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Matchday 17 of the Championship brings an intriguing clash as Swansea City AFC host Derby County FC. Scheduled for November 25, 2025, this fixture pits a struggling Swansea side against a more mid-table Derby team. Swansea will be looking to leverage their home advantage and strong historical record against Derby to climb out of the lower echelons of the league, while Derby aims to solidify their position and push towards the playoff spots. This encounter promises a tactical battle at the Swansea.com Stadium.

Current League Standings

League Table
PosTeamPlWDLGDPts
1Coventry City FC1611412837
2Middlesbrough FC16862630
3Stoke City FC168351027
4Bristol City FC16754726
5Preston North End FC16754526
6Hull City AFC16745125
7Millwall FC16745-525
8Ipswich Town FC156631024
9Birmingham City FC16736624
10Leicester City FC16664324
11Watford FC16655223
12Derby County FC16655023
13Charlton Athletic FC16655023
14Wrexham AFC16574122
15Queens Park Rangers FC16646-522
16Southampton FC16565121
17West Bromwich Albion FC16637-321
18Blackburn Rovers FC15618-419
19Portsmouth FC16457-617
20Swansea City AFC16457-717
21Oxford United FC16358-614
22Sheffield United FC164111-1213
23Norwich City FC162311-129
24Sheffield Wednesday FC161510-208
  • Swansea City AFC: Position 20th, 16 Played, 4 Wins, 5 Draws, 7 Losses, 17 Points. Goal Difference: -7 (15 GF, 22 GA).
  • Derby County FC: Position 12th, 16 Played, 6 Wins, 5 Draws, 5 Losses, 23 Points. Goal Difference: 0 (22 GF, 22 GA).

Derby County currently sits 8 places above Swansea, indicating a more stable and successful season thus far. Swansea’s goal difference suggests issues both in attack and defense, putting pressure on them to perform at home.

Head-to-Head Analysis

H2H Results Table

Recent Encounters

DateCompetitionHome TeamScoreAway Team
05 Apr 2025ChampionshipSwansea City AFC1 - 0Derby County FC
27 Nov 2024ChampionshipDerby County FC1 - 2Swansea City AFC
09 Apr 2022ChampionshipSwansea City AFC2 - 1Derby County FC
02 Oct 2021ChampionshipDerby County FC0 - 0Swansea City AFC
01 May 2021ChampionshipSwansea City AFC2 - 1Derby County FC

The historical matchups between Swansea City and Derby County paint an interesting picture. In their last 7 encounters in the Championship:

  • Swansea City Wins: 4
  • Derby County Wins: 2
  • Draws: 1

Notably, Swansea has won 3 of their last 4 home games against Derby, including a crucial 1-0 victory in April 2025. They also secured a 2-1 away win in November 2024. This recent head-to-head record suggests Swansea often finds a way to perform against the Rams, regardless of their league form. A significant trend to observe is that 6 of the last 7 direct encounters between these two sides have seen fewer than 2.5 goals scored, highlighting a history of tight, low-scoring contests.

Our Prediction

Considering Swansea’s struggles in the league this season but their strong recent head-to-head record against Derby, particularly at home, this match presents a complex betting scenario. Derby’s current form is superior, but they historically find it tough against the Swans. The most compelling trend, however, points to a low-scoring affair. Both teams are not prolific scorers this season, with Swansea averaging less than a goal per game. Furthermore, a remarkable 6 out of their last 7 direct meetings have finished with Under 2.5 goals. We anticipate a cautious game where neither side will give much away.

Our Betting Tip:

Under 2.5 Goals

 

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